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THOUGHTS OF PJ: RedBull, and the promise of Mercedes
We speak of RedBull and the "critical situation" that is hitting them, to put it to Horner.
The bad situation precipitated during the weekend in Monza in early September, when Mercedes, in fact, communicated to the RedBull not license its Power Unit for next year.
Wanting to take a step back, to analyze precisely all, we should start a few months before, more or less from May: after an early season beyond awful (especially with regard to the motor side, with performance of the Power Unit Renault does not relate to the blazon of RedBull), Marko and Horner, on the advice of the boss of bibitari Mateschitz, knocked on the door of Mercedes: RedBull was the pursuit of power unit on the market, and which one to buy if the power unit German, considering that the cost did not matter to the good old Mate?
They followed intense weeks in which important contacts took place between Lauda, the Board of Mercedes and the RedBull. Even Aston Martin was interested in the matter, with the approval of bibitari, going so to replace the now already lost Infiniti. In fact, the Japanese brand, for RedBull had to stay at Renault, after the breaking of the contract related to the Power Unit, managing to avoid a further confrontation between the giant French and the Austrians.
The many contacts between Mercedes and Red Bull finished with a nice handshake between Lauda who had the full support of the board of Mercedes (Mercedes Daimler precisely), but already in the pocket NO Mercedes AMG, and Mateschitz.
Strong handshake with Mercedes (which is true, we know, does not matter actually), the Red Bull arrived in Hungary more or less openly tearing up the contract with Renault. This triggered headlines in magazines, newspapers and numerous articles on various sites: "RedBull-Mercedes, a marriage that to be done," he said.
And it was true. The promise of Mercedes was there, and the breakup with Renault by RedBull was something simple and already have.
But after a month or so, here is the bang: the board of Mercedes - Daimler, of tremendous pressure of Mercedes AMG, he changed his mind, leaving RedBull with absolutely nothing (what I told you was also confirmed by Bernie Ecclestone in an interview ).
This led him to consider the Power Unit Ferrari as the only viable alternative for RedBull. The Italian team presented an offer to sell, its latest version of Power Unit 2015 (while Mercedes immediately guaranteed the version 2016) already in Canada, and then in Austria, because of fear of a political and technical control of Mercedes with RedBull.
It 'important to reiterate the fact that the solution to Mateschitz Ferrari was only a stopgap, because he really wanted only the Power Unit Mercedes. Immediately.
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Ferrari, meanwhile, continued to propose Power Unit in 2015 even after the dry NO Mercedes, counting on the fact that there was no other solution to RedBull. Solution designed by the Technical Director of Ferrari, James Allison, so as not to misrepresent his own work and that of other technicians of the Italian team during the coming winter; Newey is still Newey, and have it as an opponent for the same engine scary at all (including Wolff & Co.).
That said, of course, a team four times world champion can not afford to participate in a competition as important as the F1 with a Power Unit "old" at least six months. Hence the various stomach ache of our times, manifested through the various press organs.
In general, so I think a little naive management by RedBull, but more of a promise (which is little, I realize) not maintained by the board of Mercedes and Laud to.
Now, what can we expect in the coming days / weeks? There is a hypothesis "exit from Formula 1" for Red Bull? Some of the big teams, along with the CVC, have accepted the penalties for output before 2020 in exchange for huge prizes to them. These penalties of about $ 1 billion, for the uninitiated, however, have reductions of 100 million a year. Made two accounts, if RedBull to go away tomorrow, would most likely pay a whopping 500 million dollars to the FOM. This in theory, then we know that beyond the numbers, there is a political factor that could lead the team of bibitari to exit F1 with penalties much lower: Red Bull is one of the most important sponsor in other competitions FIA. As a result, a hard-nosed with RedBull Ecclestone could lead to massive damage in other categories, not only in F1.
We must also consider another hypothesis: Mateschitz, without an agreement with Ferrari (RedBull wants at all costs the PU 2016), it could go on the offensive and to submit a bid to CVC Capital Partners to buy the commercial rights of F1. At that point he would need to sell the property of the team, and a lack of agreement with Ferrari would help not just the intention.
From the point of view Ferrari, the proposal studied by DT Allison is understandable: as I have reaffirmed previously, the choice of providing the Power Unit in version 2015 is dictated more by a "fear technique" by which an impossibility to produce the appropriate number of components that will make up the new Power Unit 2016. Marchionne, also a matter of numbers (remember that the Ferrari IPO on Wall Street will happen soon), would give at least a RedBull 2016 version of its drive unit.
Finally, considering the technical side of the matter, the fact remains that Ferrari, at this point of the season (from Canada, actually) made a deal "illegal" to RedBull. This is now explained, next year, unless exemptions style Manor 2015, supplier of engines will provide customers with the power unit approved February 28, 2016. To this we add the fact that, at the meeting of the Strategy Group of two weeks ago Ferrari responded spades with regard to the regulation of the power unit in the previous year. Adding the fact that with the current technical regulations Power Unit 2016 can not be developed during the season, on balance what they're talking and RedBull Ferrari? Updates to Power Unit 2016? Only Power Unit 2015? In any case, all this would be against the current regulation.
But most likely it will be changed in the coming weeks, providing more freedom, especially the freedom required by Honda and Renault. This, by the way, could also result in a change of plans at Ferrari, but we'll talk about in the future, if it will be necessary.
That said, with its changes to the technical regulations, it is possible that Ferrari may eventually give in and then provide their own power unit in version 2016 also RedBull. As for Mercedes, only Lauda continues to push to resolve the situation, but Board and Wolff do not want (yet) know.
But we are in October, with a Red Bull and Toro Rosso STR11 RB12 in the design phase. And with a technical regulation still not certain. Time passes and the Formula 1 instead of moving forward, back.
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